National Retail Federation forecasts $1 trillion holiday spend as shoppers return to stores

American shoppers are expected to spend more than $1 trillion between November 1 and December 31, according to a forecast released by the National Retail Federation. The projection represents a 4.2% increase in holiday spending, a figure that Barry Babin of the University of Mississippi described as optimistic despite ongoing economic pressures.

Babin noted that many consumers have abandoned the traditional wait for Black Friday discounts, with holiday deals beginning to appear in October. While shoppers are spending carefully, the overall volume remains high. "The consumers are spending, and they’re spending carefully, but they’re going to spend," Babin said.

Retailers are observing a shift toward physical locations for high-ticket and luxury purchases. Babin attributed this trend to a growing concern about online fraud. "You’re seeing a return to the stores as people are looking for authentic experience, especially when you’re dealing with high-ticket items and luxury items," he said. "Because buying online opens you up to fraud a lot more than buying from a legitimate retailer in-store."

Nostalgia is also influencing product choices this year. Babin pointed to a resurgence in demand for analog technology, including Polaroid cameras, record players, and CD players, describing the trend as a backlash against modern digital devices.

Financial stress continues to affect purchasing behavior. Rising inflation and higher household costs have made shoppers more selective, a sentiment echoed by major retailers such as Walmart and Kohl’s, which have indicated pressure on consumer spending in the coming weeks. Babin warned online shoppers to be vigilant, stating that over 50% of online information is fake and more than 30% of reviews are fraudulent.

The National Retail Federation plans to release additional data regarding holiday return rates in mid-December.