Brewers Enter Game 3 With Two-Game Lead and 8 p.m. Start
Milwaukee leads the 2026 World Series 2-0 after a 5-4 win over Tampa Bay, with Freddy Peralta returning to face his former team on Monday.
By Anthony Hoffmann ·
The Milwaukee Brewers hold a two-game lead in the 2026 World Series after defeating the Tampa Bay Rays in the first two contests. The series shifts to St. Petersburg, Florida, for Game 3 on Monday night, where Milwaukee seeks a commanding 3-0 advantage in the best-of-seven matchup.
The Brewers secured their series lead in home games in Milwaukee. Saturday's contest concluded with a 5-4 Brewers victory, a result achieved after the team overcame an early deficit. Both games were decided by narrow margins, setting a tone of tight competition heading into the second leg of the series.
Monday's game features a notable pitching matchup. Left-hander Robert Gasser, who owns a 5-5 record and a 3.87 earned average, is scheduled to start for Milwaukee. He faces a familiar opponent in Tampa Bay right-hander Freddy Peralta. Peralta, who is 10-11 with a 4.42 earned average this season, previously pitched for the Brewers organization.
Action at Tropicana Field is scheduled to begin at 8 p.m. ET. Betting markets currently list Tampa Bay as slight favorites, with odds set at -117 on the money line. This pricing implies a risk of $118 to win $100. The Brewers are priced at +102, while the combined run total is set at seven.
SportsLine, a betting analytics firm, ran 10,000 simulations of the game to project outcomes. The model identified the over on the run total as the value side in 58% of those scenarios. It projected a combined total of 8.5 runs for the contest. The analysis noted that the over has hit in three of the last four meetings between these clubs.
The simulation also identified specific offensive threats. The model projects that three Brewers players, including Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, and Christian Yelich, will record 1.3 or more total bases. On the Rays side, five players, led by Yandy Diaz and Junior Caminero, are projected to reach 1.2 or more total bases.
SportsLine reported entering the World Series with a 32-25 record on its top-rated Major League Baseball money-line picks. The model's historical performance includes returning more than $1,000 for players who bet $100 on selected games. The firm's current analysis suggests the over is the statistical edge in Monday's game.
Source: CBS Sports
