London ceremony sets stage for soccer prize

Football fans will learn the name of the 2026 Ballon d'Or winner in less than a day. The ceremony is scheduled for the London Palladium, where the industry's top individual honor will be handed out.

Three names dominate the discussion: Lamine Yamal, Kylian Mbappe, and Harry Kane. Yamal, a 19-year-old for Spain, and Mbappe, a France veteran, have both campaigned publicly for the prize. Kane, who has scored heavily for England, has remained quieter in his support of his own candidacy.

Predictions are divided among different groups. Avisia, a French data firm, gives Yamal a 23 percent chance of winning. It places Kane second at 21 percent and Mbappe third at 19 percent. Rodri, the 2024 winner, and Lionel Messi round out the top five at 18 percent each. The firm notes it correctly picked the top five candidates for the previous award, which went to Ousmane Dembele. Bookmakers disagree with the data models, listing Kane as the favorite with a 70 percent probability of winning.

Peers in the game have offered mixed support. Diego Simeone, manager of Atletico Madrid, argued that Messi deserves the trophy, citing his performance at age 38. Marco Materazzi agreed, calling Messi unique. Jude Bellingham backed Kane, praising his work ethic, while Anthony Gordon supported Yamal. Aurelien Tchouameni, a teammate of Mbappe at Real Madrid, also vouched for the French striker.

The candidates present different statistical cases. Mbappe finished as the top scorer in La Liga with 25 goals and led the Champions League with 15. He also won the Golden Boot at the World Cup and set a tournament record with 12 goals. Kane scored 73 goals in the previous season, the highest total by any player since Messi reached 82 in 2011-12.

Trophy counts add another layer to the decision. Mbappe did not win a major team title during the period. Kane won the Bundesliga with Bayern Munich but finished third at the World Cup with England. Yamal won the World Cup with Spain and La Liga with Barcelona, despite injury limiting his personal output. Only four of the last 19 winners failed to capture the Champions League, World Cup, European Championship, or Copa America in their winning year.

If Yamal wins, he will become the youngest recipient in the award's history. The current record is held by Ronaldo, who was 21 when he won the prize in 1997.