Ukraine's Corn Shipping Costs Triple to $150 a Ton Amid Attack Surge

The cost to transport a single ton of corn from central Ukraine to Spain has jumped to as high as $150, triple the price recorded earlier this year. This spike in logistics costs is part of a wider economic disruption caused by sustained Russian air campaigns targeting industrial infrastructure and export routes.

In the industrial city of Kamianske, the Kamet Steel complex has stopped operations after five ballistic missiles struck the facility on September 5. The factory, which produced more than a quarter of Ukraine's steel in 2025, now stands silent with cold furnaces. Oleksandr Tretyakov, the company's chief executive, called the damage the worst since the Second World War. He noted that steel's contribution to the gross domestic product, previously about 6 percent, has effectively dropped to zero.

The agricultural sector faces similar pressure. Russian attacks on Black Sea shipping have caused ship arrivals at deep-water ports to fall by roughly 90 percent in August compared to the same month last year, according to Lloyd's List Intelligence. Only 21 vessels arrived during that period. Volodymyr Scavinskyi, trade director at exporter Nibulon, warned that the crisis could erase years of industry development, forcing the sector to start over.

Many shipping companies are rerouting cargo through the Danube River to avoid the risks of the Black Sea. However, drought conditions have lowered water levels to record lows, reducing the carrying capacity of barges. Vessels that once hauled 1,500 tons now load only 800 to 900 tons. This change requires nearly twice as many ships to move the same volume of grain, driving up expenses and slowing export times.

Farmers are reacting to the higher costs and falling market prices. The average price of corn has dropped to around $130 per ton, down from a range of $210 to $230 last year. Olena Shelest, commercial director at HarvEast, said the company is holding wheat in silo bags but must sell by year's end to secure cash for the next planting season. Producers are cutting spending on seeds and fertilizer to manage budgets, which could lower future yields.

The National Bank of Ukraine recently revised its economic outlook, projecting a 0.4 percent contraction for 2026. This reverses an earlier prediction of 1.8 percent growth. Governor Andriy Pyshnyy stated that the inflation forecast has been raised to 12.5 percent, up from 10 percent in July. The government is facing a cash crunch as revenue from key sectors like steel and agriculture declines.

Ukraine spends approximately 40 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. Torbjörn Becker, director of the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, noted that raising taxes alone cannot close the funding gap. The fiscal shortfall is just under $25 billion for 2026 and is projected to reach about $32.6 billion in 2027, excluding military support provided in kind.

Roksolana Pidlasa, head of the parliament’s budget committee, described the current period as the worst cash squeeze since the 2022 invasion. Falling tax revenues have left the treasury struggling to cover planned spending. The government has prioritized defense, public sector salaries, and pensions, postponing construction and winter preparation projects. Without a solution to the deficit, the state may struggle to pay teachers and doctors or maintain hospitals.