National Falls Below 2020 Levels as Opportunity Rises to Swing Party Status

New Zealanders face a tighter race for the next government as the ruling National Party has fallen below its 2020 election share in the latest survey. The RNZ-Reid Research poll places National at 24.8%, a drop of 1.1 percentage points from three weeks ago. This figure is lower than the party’s 2020 result but remains above its all-time low from 2002. With voting closing on November 7, the shift could determine which parties form the next administration.

Labour leads with 30.6% support, down slightly by 0.2 points. The biggest movement belongs to the Opportunity party, which rose 1.7 points to reach 7.2%. This gain positions Opportunity as a potential swing factor. Projections based on the poll indicate that Labour and the Greens could form a government with nine seats from Opportunity, totaling 64 seats in a 120-seat Parliament. The current coalition of National, ACT, and New Zealand First would secure only 54 seats under this scenario.

Other parties show mixed results. The Greens sit at 14.5%, while ACT has overtaken New Zealand First. ACT rose 1.1 points to 10.1%, its best result in this poll since the 2023 election. New Zealand First declined 0.7 points to 9.9%. Te Pāti Māori dropped 0.1 points to 1.9%, relying on electorate wins to enter Parliament. Undecided voters dropped to 3.3% from 5.6% in the previous survey.

National campaign chair Simeon Brown called the result out of step with other recent polls, including a 1News-Verian survey released Tuesday that showed National ahead at 29%. Brown said the party’s message remains clear: vote National to avoid new taxes and protect the economy. He rejected claims that the campaign strategy failed by excluding Opportunity or focusing on gangs. ACT leader David Seymour described the poll’s shifts as an outlier but expressed gratitude for support, noting that voters are still making up their minds.

Labour leader Chris Hipkins credited the result with showing real momentum for change. He said voters have seen three years of the current government and do not want three more. His personal approval has also improved, with 23.3% naming him their preferred prime minister, up 1.4 points. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon remains unchanged at 17.1%. Half of respondents believe New Zealand is heading in the wrong direction under the current coalition.

Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong said she was encouraged by the jump in support but cautioned that nothing is guaranteed. She promised to negotiate first with whichever party wins the most seats. Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the polls suggest voters are tired of National’s attack politics and want a vision for the country. Both New Zealand First and Te Pāti Māori declined to comment on the results.

The Reid Research survey polled 1,000 eligible voters online between October 20 and 26. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Party vote figures exclude those undecided or not voting. Seat projections assume Te Pāti Māori wins one or two electorates, which would give it two MPs and potentially expand Parliament size.