Luxon gains ground as National slides to 29 percent in 1News poll

National Party support fell to 29 percent in the latest 1News-Verian poll, a drop of three points from the previous week. Labour held steady at 27 percent, closing the gap between the two main parties to two points.

The survey was conducted between October 15 and October 19, 2026. It polled 1,003 eligible voters via mobile phone and online panels. The maximum sampling error is approximately 3.1 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.

In the preferred prime minister rankings, Christopher Luxon rose to 24 percent, up four points from the prior poll. Chris Hipkins remained at 18 percent. Luxon’s personal standing improved even as his party’s support declined.

Coalition partners for the National-led government saw increases. Act gained one point to reach 12 percent. New Zealand First climbed two points to 10 percent. The Green Party lost one point, settling at 15 percent. Te Pāti Māori recorded its lowest result in the poll series at 0.1 percent, though it is running a candidate-only campaign.

Opportunity fell one point to 6 percent. Based on party vote, the right-side bloc would hold 61 seats: 34 for National, 15 for Act, and 12 for New Zealand First. The left-side bloc, comprising Labour and the Greens, would hold 51 seats. Opportunity’s eight seats would give it the balance of power to form either side of government.

Te Pāti Māori is seeking an overhang, which would increase the total number of seats in Parliament. If the party wins four electorates and the Te Tai Tokerau Party wins one, the left bloc could reach 56 seats. If Te Pāti Māori wins only one seat, the right bloc could govern without needing Opportunity’s support.

The data was weighted to align with Stats NZ population counts for age, gender, region, ethnicity, and education. Undecided voters and non-voters were excluded from the party support figures. The results represent a snapshot of current support rather than a final election prediction.