Nonprofit Turnout Campaigns and 30% Undecided Voters Rattle Likud Ranks

Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in an election that allows Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government to serve out its full term. Inside Likud, party officials are split on the likely outcome. A Likud source stated that members are divided between those confident in victory and those fearing a surge in turnout among opponents.

The optimism within the party rests on the internal polling led by Shlomo Filber. The source described the internal sentiment with a stark dichotomy regarding Filber's predictions: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other." This confidence contrasts with the anxiety caused by external factors influencing voter behavior.

Party sources identified a major threat in the activity of organizations and nonprofits directing funds toward mobilizing the rival camp. These groups reportedly ran a wide-ranging campaign throughout the election period that operated outside direct party funding. The efforts included social media drives, physical signage, field events, transportation for Arab voters, and initiatives to bring Israeli residents abroad home to vote.

One Likud source labeled this activity "the nonprofits affair on steroids." The party argued that these groups provide a support network for opposition parties that bypasses standard party-financing rules. The sources did not provide documentation for the specific funding amounts or proof that the activity was illegal, but they claimed the Central Elections Committee focused too heavily on campaign video limits and public resource use while neglecting this organizational push.

Likud is executing a large-scale ground operation for Election Day despite restrictions on gathering information from polling stations. The primary goal of this effort is to prevent right-wing voters from drifting to smaller slates. In a specific bid to consolidate the right, the party attempted to convince Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter to withdraw from the race. Winter, a former commander of the Givati Brigade, leads the People of Israel party. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan failed to secure his withdrawal, and Sadan issued a statement supporting Winter.

The party is also courting backers of other right-wing lists, including the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha. The Ahi party, led by Rabbi Abergel, has already withdrawn from the race following discussions with Likud. During those talks, the possibility of legislation allowing the party to name a deputy minister was raised. A survey published shortly before the vote indicated that nearly one-third of Israeli voters remained undecided.