Trump Returns to Texas as Senate Race Ties

The final week of the midterm campaign has arrived in Texas with the state’s Senate race in a statistical deadlock. President Donald Trump is returning to the state to rally his base, aiming to break the tie in a contest that has defied the state’s recent history. The two candidates are locked at 49 percent each among likely voters, according to a new Fox News poll.

Trump will make two stops in the state on Tuesday. He begins in Corpus Christi in the morning before traveling to Lubbock in West Texas. There, he will campaign alongside Republican nominee Ken Paxton at the Lubbock Memorial Civic Center. This marks the President’s fourth trip to Texas since Labor Day. He previously visited for the Republican National Convention in Dallas, a plant tour in Denton, and a rally in San Antonio in October.

The race pits Paxton, the state attorney general, against Democrat James Talarico, a former public school teacher and state representative. They are competing to replace retiring Senator John Cornyn. The contest is one of a dozen Senate races that will determine if the GOP retains its slim majority in the upper chamber. Talarico’s campaign is attempting to end a more than 30 year losing streak for Democrats in statewide Texas elections.

The two candidates are making sharply different pitches to voters in the final days. Paxton has sought to tie Talarico to the national Democratic Party, portraying him as too liberal for the state. His campaign has highlighted past comments by the Democrat. Talarico, in contrast, has focused on voter dissatisfaction with the economy under Trump’s administration.

The polling data reveals distinct dynamics in the electorate. Democrats hold an enthusiasm advantage, with 69 percent saying they are extremely interested in the election compared to 61 percent of Republicans. Paxton faces some resistance within his own party, as 90 percent of Republicans back him while 98 percent of Democrats support Talarico. The data also shows a shift among Hispanic likely voters, who now favor Talarico 64 percent to 34 percent. This contrasts with the 2024 election, when Hispanic voters in Texas favored Trump by one point.

Paxton continues to navigate personal and legal challenges. He survived an impeachment effort by the Texas House in 2023 and was acquitted by the state Senate. He is also in the middle of a contentious divorce, with his wife citing biblical grounds based on recent discoveries in her filing last year. These issues have battered the attorney general’s image over the past decade.

Economic concerns are weighing heavily on the decision of voters. More than twice as many respondents say they are financially worse off than two years ago compared to those who say they are better off, at 43 percent to 20 percent. Those who report being worse off break heavily for Talarico. Voters who feel their finances are better or about the same favor Paxton.

Talarico is scheduled to campaign at Texas Tech University in Lubbock on Tuesday evening. This places both sides of the Senate fight in the same city on the same day. The election will also test whether Trump’s 2024 gains among Hispanic voters carry into the midterms and if the Republican coalition that delivered him the state two years ago will show up again without him on the ballot.