Tehran Diplomacy: Mecca Alliance Presses Iran on Houthi Strikes

Global energy markets remain under pressure as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, blocking roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and gas flows. Against this backdrop, representatives from the Mecca Defense Alliance convened in Tehran on October 26 to negotiate with Iran.

The trilateral pact binds Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey in a mutual-defense arrangement similar to NATO's Article 5. A senior security official in Islamabad stated that the primary goal of the meeting is to persuade Iran to use its influence to stop Houthi attacks on Saudi territory. The official indicated that the alliance is prepared to propose closer Saudi-Israeli security cooperation as a bargaining chip if Tehran does not act.

"The key question is why Iran should comply? The answer is that Saudi Arabia may ask for support from Israel and that will potentially require them to join the Abraham Accords," the official said. The 2020 accords normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Since Turkey already maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, the three nations could present this scenario as a viable option if Iran refuses to rein in its Yemeni allies.

The Houthis have intensified missile strikes on Saudi infrastructure, targeting airports and oil facilities. In early October, rebels attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing 13 people and wounding more than 300. They have also warned airlines to avoid Saudi airspace. In response, Saudi forces have launched strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen.

Azaz Syed, an analyst based in Islamabad, described the gathering as a final attempt to secure a negotiated settlement before the United States resumes military attacks on Iran. Pakistan's army chief, Asim Munir, visited Tehran the previous week to deliver a final warning to the Iranian government. Syed noted that while the partners will demand an end to Houthi attacks, the central message concerns a wider regional settlement.

Hamidreza Azizi of the International Crisis Group in Belgium characterized the meeting as a last-minute effort to prevent war. He stated that the immediate priority is halting the resumption of conflict between Iran and the United States. He noted that the timing suggests regional nations fear diplomatic efforts are running out of time. While the meeting may keep communication channels open, Azizi added that the core issue remains unresolved: Iran seeks security guarantees, but regional mediators have limited control over Washington's decisions.

The talks also occur amid strained relations between Iran and Pakistan. Islamabad recently closed two border crossings in Baluchistan and changed digital currency declaration procedures for Iranian exports. Reports indicate Pakistan suspended operating clearance for Mahan Air, an Iranian airline linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. In reaction, Iran stopped exporting Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) to Pakistan. Pakistan imports approximately 7,000 metric tons of LPG daily from Iran, and the halt has caused gas prices for domestic and commercial consumers to rise sharply.