Election Night: Senate Control Hinges on Tight Races in Seven States

Control of the U.S. Senate could remain uncertain for days or even weeks after polls close on Tuesday, while the House outcome is expected to be clearer sooner. The delay stems from tight margins in seven competitive states and the use of ranked-choice voting in two of them, a process that extends the count. Seven states are especially close in the Senate race, and two states use ranked-choice voting, which can prolong the tallying time. Because Senate control often hinges on a single seat, the uncertainty persists longer than in the House, where larger margins typically allow for quicker calls.

Polls begin closing at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. Attention turns immediately to Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is favored to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins. The governor’s race is tighter, pitting billionaire businessman Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing, a change from past delays.

At 8 p.m. ET, polls close in Florida, Pennsylvania, and Maine, among others. In Florida, the governor’s race favors Republican Rep. Byron Donalds over Democrat David Jolly. The state’s Senate race is less competitive, with incumbent Ashley Moody expected to win over Angie Nixon. Florida’s redistricted congressional maps face their first test, with seven House seats considered competitive and two labeled as toss-ups by the Cook Political Report.

Pennsylvania, which recently saw its map solidify, has four competitive House races. Three of those seats now lean toward Democrats, with the last remaining a toss-up. This shift offers Democrats a potential for gains in the state. In Maine, incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins faces a challenge from Democratic entrant Troy Jackson. Collins has remained resilient in past challenges, but the seat is a target for Democrats, as it is the only Republican-held Senate seat in a state won by Kamala Harris in 2024.

By 9 p.m. ET, polls close in more than 80% of states, including Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas. These states feature competitive Senate races that could determine chamber control. In Texas, state Rep. James Talarico faces Republican Ken Paxton. Talarico may take an early lead from early voting data, while Paxton is expected to gain ground as county totals are reported. The governor’s race remains close between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa, with Abbott favored.

In Michigan, the governor’s race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers has drawn significant attention. Republicans ran ads highlighting El-Sayed’s background, while he emphasized his personal story. The race remains a toss-up. In Iowa, state Rep. Josh Turek challenges Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson in the Senate race. State auditor Rob Sand is favored in the governor’s race after running a campaign that deemphasized partisan politics. Democrats have a strong chance for a pickup in the state.

Polls close in Montana, Nevada, and Utah at 10 p.m. ET. Montana’s 1st Congressional District race is a toss-up between Sam Forstag and Aaron Flint. The Senate race includes independent candidate Seth Bodnar, who is considered a threat to the Republican incumbent. In Nevada, Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo faces Democrat Aaron Ford in a governor’s race considered a toss-up due to economic conditions in the state.

California, Oregon, and Washington close polls at 11 p.m. ET. California voters approved a new congressional map in 2025, responding to President Trump’s redistricting efforts. This change has made the state less competitive for Republicans, with close races tilting toward Democrats in the final weeks. The state’s new map affects several House races, potentially altering the balance of power in Congress.