Tight Senate margins complicate Tuesday night's vote count
Seven competitive states and two using ranked choice voting could delay the final tally for weeks, even as House results may arrive faster.
By Beatriz Bailey ·
Election night results will begin appearing Tuesday evening, but determining control of the Senate may take days or even weeks. Analysts note that while House races often have wider margins that allow for quicker calls, the Senate contest is tighter. Seven states are considered especially competitive, and two of those jurisdictions use ranked choice voting, a system that can extend the counting process. A single seat could determine the balance of power in the upper chamber.
The first wave of polls closes at 7 p.m. ET in Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Virginia, and Vermont. Georgia draws early attention due to its Senate and gubernatorial races. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is favored to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins for the Senate seat. The governor's race between billionaire businessman Rick Jackson and former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms is described as one of the most competitive in the South. Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger stated that new laws require counties to report results within an hour of polls closing.
In South Carolina, the Senate race between Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic nominee Annie Andrews is unexpectedly tight. National polls indicate a toss-up in the heavily Republican state, while the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage. At 7:30 p.m. ET, polls close in North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. North Carolina's Senate seat, held by Republicans, is viewed as the most likely target for a Democratic flip. The race pits former Gov. Roy Cooper against Michael Whatley, a former RNC chairman. Democrats last won a Senate seat in the state in 2008.
Ohio presents one of seven tight Senate races that could define chamber control. Incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. For governor, Democrat Amy Acton leads polls against Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy recently launched an attack ad featuring Acton's estranged mother, which has generated backlash that could impact both his own race and Husted's Senate bid.
Polls close at 8 p.m. ET in 16 states, including Florida, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. In Florida, Republican Rep. Byron Donalds leads Democratic opponent David Jolly for governor, though the margin is slight. The state's redrawn congressional maps face their first test, with the Cook Political Report identifying seven competitive House seats. In Pennsylvania, three House races that were toss-ups recently have shifted to lean Democratic. New Hampshire's Senate race between Rep. Chris Pappas and former Sen. John Sununu has widened in Pappas's favor, though Republicans see the state as a potential long-shot pickup.
At 9 p.m. ET, polls close in 15 states, including Arizona, Michigan, and Texas. These states feature competitive Senate races that could decide control of the chamber. In Texas, Democratic nominee James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for governor. Talarico may hold an early lead due to mail-in ballots, but Paxton is expected to gain ground as county totals report. In Michigan, the gubernatorial race between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers remains a toss-up, with the governor's contest favoring Democrat Jocelyn Benson over John James.
The final major poll closing occurs at 11 p.m. ET in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. California voters recently redrew congressional boundaries in response to redistricting battles, a change that has tilted close House races toward Democrats. The state's new map affects several districts, and the outcome will serve as a test of the revised boundaries.
Source: WLRN
