Labour MP Ingrid Leary faces tightest challenge in Taieri since seat reconfiguration

Ingrid Leary is seeking a third term as the Member of Parliament for Taieri, a seat that now stretches from the southern suburbs of Dunedin to Balclutha and inland toward the Rock and Pillar Range. She faces a field of five other candidates in a contest that has drawn attention due to shifting voting patterns in the region. The electorate was formerly known as Dunedin South before boundary changes in 2020 renamed it Taieri and altered its geographic composition. Leary won the new seat comfortably in 2020, securing more than half of the vote and a majority of 12,398 over National candidate Liam Kernaghan.

The dynamic changed sharply in the 2023 general election, where Leary held the seat by a margin of fewer than 1,500 votes. Her closest rival was Matthew French, a newcomer for the National Party, who finished just 1,443 votes behind her. The party vote in the electorate swung away from Labour, though the party still edged out National by a margin of less than one percent. Mark Patterson of NZ First increased his personal vote, and the party vote for NZ First nearly tripled from 1,179 in 2020 to 3,259 in 2023. Scott Willis of the Green Party retained third place in the electorate vote, and the Green party vote nearly doubled during the same period. ACT remained relatively steady.

Leary is currently campaigning for retention against French, who is challenging her again. Patterson and Willis are also running for a second time in this seat. Two new candidates have entered the race: Robbie Byars, a dairy farmer and Otago Regional Councillor from South Otago, is running for ACT. Anna Knight, a translator, is the Alliance Party candidate. The six-way race highlights the competitive nature of the Otago region, where rural and urban interests intersect.

Eric Johnson, a farm manager at Blue Willow Blueberries in Fairfield, expressed a desire for political change. He noted that while Dunedin remains heavily Labour and Green, the surrounding countryside leans toward National and ACT. "I'd love to see Dunedin not be so left leaning because I think that's holding us back something terrible, but I would like to see more consensus amongst all the parties and more long-term planning," Johnson said. He criticized current political divisions, stating, "I think there are a lot of people trying to divide the country obviously into two, divide it on race, which I think is the worst thing that could happen."

Mike Hammond, chair of the South Dunedin Community Network, said residents are hoping the next government will support ongoing climate adaptation work. Recent flooding has left some residents in South Dunedin out of their homes for months. "I get the impression it's always going to be a Labour seat and I would say that's the feedback I'm getting," Hammond said. He observed that the Green Party is gaining ground due to its focus on resilience. Hammond also noted anxiety among low-income residents regarding political rhetoric about beneficiaries and moving orders.

Ian Bryant, a farmer in Taieri, raised concerns about national debt and the strength of the New Zealand dollar. "Everyone's going on about the cost-of-living crisis. Well, everything we buy from overseas has become dearer because our dollar is so weak because our economy's so poor with debt," Bryant said. He also pointed to local issues, such as Ministry of Education cuts to the Henley to Outram school bus route earlier this year. "My grandchildren have to get in the car and go and meet the bus because they've cut the bus routes back," he said. Bryant noted that vandalism of campaign billboards has increased, calling it a worrying trend.

Doreen, a resident of Mosgiel who requested her surname not be used, focused on traffic congestion. "It's become ridiculous now because Mosgiel is growing rapidly and the lights are not enough for us to be able to get through easily," she said. She argued that large trucks should not be allowed on the main street and hoped for higher youth turnout in the election. Voting for the general election is now open, with polls scheduled to close on November 7.