Israelis vote in tight race where neither leader can form a majority

Approximately 70,000 Israelis have flown home from abroad to cast ballots in Tuesday's general election, a logistical feat driven by a campaign defined by security concerns and a fragmented political field. This surge in return voters adds to a pool of hundreds of thousands casting ballots for the first time, ensuring high turnout in a contest that could reshape the country's government.

Polling data released on Friday indicates a nearly even split between incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. However, neither candidate's political bloc is projected to secure the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-member Knesset. This mathematical reality implies that the winner will not be determined solely by the popular vote, but by the ability to assemble a governing coalition from a diverse array of parties.

The campaign has centered on the security failures of October 7, when Hamas-led attacks resulted in the deaths of nearly 1,200 people and the capture of 251 hostages. The opposition bloc, led by Eisenkot's newly formed Yashar Party, has demanded an independent commission of inquiry into the events, a move Netanyahu has resisted for years, arguing it would be biased against him. Netanyahu has countered by framing himself as the nation's security leader, citing strategic victories in regional conflicts and his close relationship with US President Donald Trump.

Eisenkot's coalition, often called the change bloc, includes ideological contrasts. It features right-wing figures such as former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman, alongside left-leaning former general Yair Golan. Netanyahu, who first held office in 1996, relies on his existing alliance with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties, which constitute the most right-wing government in Israeli history. Two Arab party blocs also remain in the race, representing about one-fifth of the population, though most leading Jewish parties have ruled out formal coalitions with them.

Democratic tensions have fueled the opposition's messaging. Critics point to Netanyahu's ongoing corruption trial, which he denies, and his continued pursuit of judicial reforms that sparked mass protests prior to the October attacks. In the final days of the campaign, Channel 12 reported that Netanyahu sought last-minute military action against Iran before the polls closed, a move opposed by military chief Eyal Zamir. CNN subsequently reported that Netanyahu attempted to persuade President Trump to authorize new strikes on Iran, a request Trump refused. Netanyahu denied both reports.

Campaign rhetoric intensified as Netanyahu posted an AI-generated image of a nuclear bomb striking Tel Aviv, warning that only he could protect Israel if Iran acquired nuclear weapons. Eisenkot described the move as hysterical. The issue of conscription also divided the electorate, with Netanyahu's government failing to enforce a Supreme Court ruling requiring ultra-Orthodox men in full-time religious study to serve in the military, a point of contention as thousands of other citizens have been conscripted.

On Gaza, Eisenkot supports a plan to end Hamas rule within 18 months, potentially through a US-led peace deal or military force. Israel has maintained daily strikes in Gaza since last year's ceasefire, stating it targets Hamas operatives. The Hamas-run health ministry reports that more than 74,000 people have been killed since the war began, figures the United Nations considers reliable. Eisenkot largely supports West Bank settlements, which are illegal under international law, but aims to curb attacks by extremist Jewish settlers while creating conditions for Palestinian autonomy under Israeli security control.

Exit polls are scheduled to be published by Israeli broadcasters at 22:00 local time on Tuesday. Netanyahu's Likud party will gather in Jerusalem, while Eisenkot's Yashar Party will convene in Tel Aviv. Hundreds of thousands of soldiers and reservists are also voting, but many of their ballots will not be counted until Wednesday, a delay that may advantage right-wing parties with strong military support. If no bloc reaches a majority, Israel risks political deadlock, a scenario that led to five elections between 2019 and 2022.

In the event of a deadlock, Netanyahu would remain as interim prime minister while new elections are called. Although the race is often framed as a direct contest between the two main figures, other leaders could potentially take power if they withhold support for a coalition unless they are offered the top position. The coming weeks will determine whether the complex electoral arithmetic results in a stable government or another round of political wrangling.