38 percent: Trump's approval hits a historic low as House control swings

President Trump's approval rating stands at 38 percent, a figure early exit polls describe as the lowest for a sitting president in a midterm election cycle. That number sits below his ratings from his first term and below George W. Bush's 2006 score, a year when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress.

The low approval number coincides with a contentious campaign for the 435 House seats. Republicans currently hold 218 seats, plus one independent who caucuses with them, against 214 Democrats and two vacancies. The party has controlled the House since 2023. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries told reporters on Tuesday night that Democrats are on the verge of taking back the majority. He stated that early vote numbers were strong in blue, swing, and red states. Jeffries added that the party is working hard to reach 218 seats and win as many as possible beyond that threshold.

Voter motivation in this cycle appears heavily tied to the presidency. Roughly six in 10 voters said Trump is a factor in their choice for the House. This sentiment is particularly strong among Democrats, who are overwhelmingly motivated by opposition to the president. For Republicans, the dynamic is different. While most GOP voters in 2018 cited support for Trump as a primary reason for voting, that figure has dropped in the current cycle.

Speaker Mike Johnson challenged the polling data on Monday. He told reporters in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District that the polls are wrong. Johnson said he has visited more swing districts in blue states than any other candidate this cycle. He compared the current energy to 2024, when Republicans won the White House, the Senate, and the House. Johnson argued that pollsters are underestimating Republican support because many people refuse to answer their phones.

Logistical issues have emerged in New York's 17th District. Officials in Westchester County reported problems with ballot scanners on Tuesday morning. The state board said a late programming change in one municipality caused machines elsewhere in the county to reject valid ballots. Voting continued through emergency procedures while the parties worked together to resolve the issue. Representative Mike Lawler and his opponent, Cait Conley, both urged voters to remain in line and cast their ballots.

The redistricting maps for 2026 have created a difficult landscape for incumbents. Under the new boundaries, Trump won 22 districts in 2024 that are currently represented by Democrats. These include seats in Florida, Texas, and New York. Conversely, former Vice President Kamala Harris won eight districts held by Republicans, including seats in California, New York, and Pennsylvania. The last time the president's party gained House seats in a midterm was 2002, when Republicans added eight seats following the 9/11 attacks.