Congress Control May Take Days to Determine

The identity of the party controlling Congress after Tuesday's election may remain uncertain for several days. While the stakes for the 435 House seats and 35 Senate contests are clear, the timeline for declaring winners is not.

Republicans currently hold a 219 to 216 advantage in the House, with two vacancies. They need 218 seats to maintain control. In the Senate, Republicans hold a 53 to 47 lead. Democrats need 51 seats to take the chamber, while Republicans need 50 because Vice President JD Vance holds the tiebreaking vote.

The Associated Press will not project outcomes until it determines that trailing candidates cannot close the gap. This standard often leads to delays, particularly in states with complex counting methods. Alaska and Maine use ranked choice voting for their Senate races. If no candidate secures 50 percent of the vote in the first round, the lowest polling candidate is eliminated, and their ballots are redistributed. This process can extend the time required to declare a winner.

Mail ballot counting also contributes to the wait. California, the most populous state, saw thousands of ballots dropped off on Election Day in 2022. In that cycle, half of the state's votes were counted after the election day. The AP called Senate control four days after the 2022 midterms. The House result followed eight days later.

In the 2024 presidential cycle, the gap was wider. Senate control was called the day after Election Day, while the House result took eight days to finalize.